Three Signs 2013 will be the Hottest Housing Year Since 2005
Article by: Mike Simonsen
In January I penned an article for HousingWire magazine (paper! registration required) where I guided readers to watch for signals that the Fiscal Cliff could derail the housing recovery. A month later and the signals are strong: The Fiscal Cliff is long gone. The 2013 housing market is on fire, across the country, and the leading indicators point to home price appreciation far stronger than the 10% national jump of 2012.
Three Powerful Leading Indicators
Housing market headlines tend to focus on the traditional gauge of the market – prices of homes in completed transactions.
Fortunately, the active market of homes listed for sale is rich with signal about where prices are going in the future. Perhaps the most insightful of these is a stat we track closely: the percent of homes on the market with recent price reductions.
Contact us if for local or national details on any of these metrics
1. Percent of Homes with Price Reductions
Percent of Homes on the Market with Price Reductions in the past 90 days. Single Family Homes. Altos 20-city (national) composite. Data as of February 15, 2013
To understand price reductions, think of your personal experience with homes for sale. In “normal” markets, a little more than a third of homes (38%, in fact, nationally is common), are listed overpriced – many intentionally, to “test the waters”. When they don’t sell, the asking price is reduced.
In weak demand markets, price reductions climb to over 40% and even over 50% of the active inventory – meaning half the homes on the market have had to cut their asking price in the last 90 days. Conversely, in the hottest markets, price reductions may be required by only around 15% of the stock. This means that demand is so strong that homes have buyer competition and prices are rising week-over-week.
We’ve had a hot year for housing. Demand is high and inventory low, and price reductions as of February 15, 2013 are at 28% nationally. Pent up demand is buying homes more aggressively than sellers expected. This is a significantly bullish leading indicator.
2. Price of Newly Listed Properties
Median Price of Newly Listed Properties. Single Family Homes. Altos 20-city (national) composite. Data as of February 15, 2013
The pricing of newly-listed properties are a terrific signal of where a market is headed. To calculate this statistics, we snapshot prices for every property every week. Like watching the first grapes on the vine, the prices of this week’s new crop is the signal for the coming season. Why is PNL so insightful? It’s a textbook example of the “wisdom of the crowds” phenomenon. Real estate agents listing a property determine the optimal list price taking into consideration a number of factors, including everything they know about local demand levels. Those realtors, in aggregate, know exactly where to price their properties to sell. Therefore, when we observe the newly listed prices climbing, we know the Realtors are telling us something.
3. Median Days on Market
Median Days on Market. Single Family Homes. Altos 20-city (national) composite. Data as of February 15, 2013
The time it takes to sell a home is a much more intuitive signal of demand than the above two leading indicators. Homes move faster when there’s more demand.
But watching Days on Market (DoM) for an area can be deceiving, for a nuanced statistical reason: most often when you hear about DoM, the number reported is an average. Averages have this nasty habit of being skewed by outliers. In this case, garbage properties that sit around the market forever skew the average DoM higher. So instead I like to look at median DoM (the middle). Median DoM reacts more quickly in recovery markets. When the good properties are going quickly, the Median DoM falls. Guess what? Across this country Median DoM is falling. Steeply.
Demand is high, supply is low. Prices are taking off. 2013 is going to crush it on home price appreciation.
A Rabbi, a Priest, a Pastor, and some Mayors…Isaiah 54:17
Now throw in Up, Up and Away with Marilyn McCoo and Billy Davis, Jr. and what have you got?
The Mayors’ Prayer Lunch, which was sponsored by Bill Edwards and The Edwards Family Foundation in support of All Children’s Hospital held at The Club, Treasure Island, Florida, USA on February 19, 2012.
The luncheon was held and brought together a unique yet intertwined group of faithful individuals. Rabbi Dr. Bernard Wolfson shared a prayer for world peace, while Former Treasure Island, Mayor Mary Maloof shared a story of prayers that were answered and how important it is that prayer be very specific. Former St. Petersburg, Florida Mayor Rick Baker (2001-2010) shared an empowering story of his campaign days and how a bible verse, Isaiah 54:17, “No weapon formed against you shall prosper…” impacted him and his success in life. Baker came to understand that the word “weapon” can refer not to just guns and other forms arms, but also to disparaging words that public officials and individuals commonly hear in various forms of media and general communication.
Later in the luncheon, Father John Blum of St. John Vianney Catholic Church in St. Pete Beach, Florida shared a prayer of community. Marilyn McCoo and Billy Davis, Jr. formally of the 5th Dimension presented bits of their lives, how faith can impact and strengthen our lives, and how they developed everlasting love and faith. McCoo and Davis shared their most recent book Up, Up and Away, How We Found Love, Faith and Lasting Marriage in the Entertainment World, with an estimated crowd of 200.
The luncheon closed with remarks made by current Treasure Island Mayor Robert Minning and the musical finale I Still Believe in America sung by Kenn Mann. Mann had the crowd join him in singing just before Master of Ceremonies, David Chubb, brought the Mayors’ Prayer Luncheon to closure before the inspired group of attendees.
Shared by Theresa Lynn Collins
Massive Mountain Mansion and 257 Acre Pennsylvania Estate – Get Away for Some Peace and Quiet
Secluded – Take a Break from the City Life
Massive Mountain Mansion Estate with 257 Acres
46 Rosswoods Lane, Hollidaysburg, Pennsylvania, USA
27,000 Sq. Ft. Mansion with 6 Bay Garage, a Caretaker’s or Hunting Cottage with 8 Bay Garage, Detached Garage with 2 Bays, Trails through the Mountain, 75 Acres of Groomed Land, Koi Fish Pond with Two Spray Fountains, Picnic Pavilion, The List Goes on…
Secluded – Get Away for some Peace and Quiet in the Alleghany Mountains – More to Follow…
Debunking the Myths of Condo Financing
Really…there is conventional financing available for some owner occupied condos – at 97% – including Florida!
- LTV 97% Owner Occupied (with income restrictions)
- LTV 95% Owner Occupied (with PMI and yes you can find PMI for some condos)
- LTV 90% Second Homes (with PMI)
- LTV 80% Investment
Get with a great lender and ensure that the condo project is eligible for this type of financing.
The EverBank PRO Business Partner Team Presented “Debunking the Myths of Condo Financing” to a large audience at PRO in Clearwater, Florida, USA on January 9, 2012…
New Direction(s)?
New Direction(s)?
We are just over a week into the New Year! Are you still focused or is life getting you off track of the plans you established for your personal and business life? Today I attended the seminar “New Direction for 2013” presented by Linda S. Goldfarb of LSG Consulting Services at the monthly Independent Real Estate Professionals (I.R.E.P.) meeting.
It was a great and focused presentation which helped get me “reeled” (Love Fishing) back-in to my life goals, beautiful sunny Florida days with flat waters can be a distraction, as are the things you love in your life! Linda talked about action plans, schedules, organization, running a business, obstacles, and normal life commitments. She also discussed becoming accountable for your personal and business self…as Nike says “Just Do It”…
If you are getting sideways already, reel yourself in too, and give Linda a call http://www.lsgconsulting.com/
Linda – Thanks for Your Inspiration –
Fort DeSoto Beach and Park Consistently Named #1 Beach, Tierra Verde, Florida, USA
Looking for some good wholesome fun in the sun? Pinellas County’s Tierra Verde Fort De Soto Beach has been recognized as one of the best beaches in the Unites States from a variety of sources. Recently, Parents Magazine named it the best family beach in America! Previously, the clean and sunny beach was honored by TripAdvisor and by Dr. Beach. There is something for everyone from bicycling, boating, camping, to the historian who enjoys a museum. The list of features goes on, the park is wheel-chair accessible.
See you in the sun and sand…
http://www.pinellascounty.org/park/05_ft_desoto.htm
http://www.parents.com/fun/vacation/ideas/best-family-beaches/#page=2
Bird Watching on the Tierra Verde Island – The Great Egret
Life on the Tierra Verde Island of Florida, USA…This photo is of the Great Egret. It is an absolute joy to watch them wade in the Tampa Bay and Gulf of Mexico Waters and remain stoic awaiting the opportunity to pounce on their prey. Take a look at the beautiful glistening eyes, the long yellow hunting bill, and the lacy wedding-like plumage blowing in the wind (left of the egret’s body). The aigrettes, or nuptial feathers, are somewhat camouflaged in the branches of the mangroves. What a delight the Great Egrets bring to life on the Tierra Verde Island! For research…the Great Egret is also known as the American Egret, the Common Egret, the Great White Egret, and the Great White Heron. Officially in North America it is formally known as the Great Egret (National Audubon Society). Enjoy!
Tampa Home Prices Bottom Out
HOUSING FINDS ITS FOOTING
Grab the champagne! The party hats! Tampa Bay’s home prices hit bottom!
It’s an odd accomplishment to champion but still reason to celebrate. 2012 will mark the first year after a six-year slip-and-slide that home prices ended on higher ground than they began.
Median sales prices jumped about 10 percent, to $131,000, this year in Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco and parts of Hernando counties, Multiple Listing Service data show…Tampa metro area rose in value by $7.9 billion this year after crashing $10 billion in 2011, Zillow data show…
Compiled by Jeff Harrington, Drew Harwell and Jamal Thalji.
Vision for 2013
Make 2013 Your Best Year Ever
Prepare for 2013 with a strategic vision and by setting your carefully planned goals – with deadlines. It has been shown that written goals are more often achieved than those we just think and dream. Take daily and measureable action to accomplish your goals. Have a Vision with Action…
Vision without action is merely a dream.
Action without vision just passes the time.
Vision with action will change the world.
Joel Arthur Barker
